虽然很多人理性上都知道一件事情叫做 “time in the market beats timing the market” 或者说“不要择时”,但是真正在股市急速下跌的时候还能保持理性是比较难的。这周SP500指数下跌了10%+。每到这个时候,很多人都在想:我是不是该卖VOO了?我是不是该大举入场抄底了?我是不是该买3x反指SQQQ甚至恐慌指数VXX了?我的确认识有高手平时的仓位就是100% VTI然后现在依然很淡定只偶尔看盘不操作的,不过我自认为我还做不到这种境界。
我目前主要的投资方式还是在 Adaptive Risk Parity 这个策略及其变种上,当然,并不是全都是3x的UPRO/TMF,我还有很大一部分仓位在不加杠杆的VOO/EDV上,总杠杆率是大于1但小于3的。其实这个 adaptive 的策略实际上也是一种 timing the market 的策略:它在试图用上个月的 volatility 去预测下个月的 volatility。本质上来讲,这种 timing 策略可能和均线理论一样完全无效,即固定一个40/60或55/45的比例也许最后效果也没差别。不过我自认为这种只改变portfolio里面俩东西的比例的 timing 策略有一定的好处:你如果严格执行这种策略,就不会有把钱撤出市场的冲动。这就比 naive 的 timing the market 好多了,永远不把钱撤出市场就不会错过大的涨势。因此我个人认为这样的 timing 策略可以有效缓解投资时的情绪问题,帮助 stay the course。
近期股市跌得特别迅速,于是有一些读者在问我是如何应对的。我的实际应对就是前两天开始我就提前 rebalance 了一下,但是我要强调一下这个操作完全没有理论依据,完全就是为了满足我的心理需求的。我个人感觉在市场明显 volatility 变大的时候也许应该适当增加一下 rebalance 频率,不过再重复一遍这个想法完全没有理论依据。大家也请不要把我当做投资方面的大神,我也只是刚开始学习投资没多久的萌新,也在不断学习/犯错中,我只是比大部分人更喜欢分享自己的心得而已…【更新】后来的走势其实打脸打的piapiapia,完全stay the course才是正解,提前rebalance、根据波动率降杠杆之类的骚操作都是会导致回报率降低的。投资这个策略需要信仰,千万不可以因为短期波动而止损。
physixfan
eaglefantasy
Eagle_Fantasy
宇宙的心弦
Traction Theme by The Theme Foundry
Copyright © 2024 physixfan. All rights reserved.
宇宙的心弦 by physixfan is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
请教下为什么是VOO/EDV而不是VOO/BND呢?
BND 是 total bond,EDV 是 20-30 yr 长期 bond。债券这个东西就是越长期的波动越大,EDV 可以算是不加杠杆的债券基金里波动最大的一个了。BND 在很多地方被推崇是正是因为它波动小比较稳;但是对于 risk parity 的策略来说债券一方波动需要大一点才能去平衡股票一方的波动。
(t.sales_channel = #dsChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #dsChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
(nvl(ap.cur_process_code, m.process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and nvl(ap.cur_sub_process_code, m.sub_process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
t.last_sales_man_code = #salesManCode#
t.sub_bank_code IN
#subBankCodeList[]#
) tab2
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc
)tab
<![CDATA[
where rownum
(#pageNo#-1) * #pageCount#
]]>
///////////////////////
(t.sales_channel = #tkChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #tkChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
(nvl(ap.cur_process_code, m.process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and nvl(ap.cur_sub_process_code, m.sub_process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and t.last_sales_man_code = #salesManCode#
) tab2
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc
<![CDATA[
)tab
where rownum (to_number(#pageNo#)-1) * to_number(#pageCount#)
]]>
////////////////
(t.sales_channel = #tkChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #tkChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
(nvl(ap.cur_process_code, m.process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and nvl(ap.cur_sub_process_code, m.sub_process_code) = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and t.referrals_code = #refereeCode#
order by t.date_apply desc
order by t.date_apply asc
<![CDATA[
)tab
where rownum (to_number(#pageNo#)-1) * to_number(#pageCount#)
]]>
////////////////////////
(t.sales_channel = #dsChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #dsChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
m.PRODUCT_LABEL = ’01’
apr.loan_code = #loanCode#
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
nvl(m.PRODUCT_LABEL, ’02’) != ’01’
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
t.last_sales_man_code = #salesManCode#
t.sub_bank_code IN
#subBankCodeList[]#
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and ar.ap_loan_valid is null
]]>
ar.um = #salesManCode#
ar.sub_bank_code IN
#subBankCodeList[]#
ar.appoint_no in ( select ad.appoint_no from appl_admit ad join appl_main_info m on ad.apply_no = m.apply_no and m.product_label=’01’)
ar.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
ar.appoint_no not in (select ad.appoint_no from appl_admit ad join appl_main_info m on ad.apply_no = m.apply_no and m.product_label =’01’)
) tab2
where 1=1
(tab2.”phaseCode” = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and tab2.”phaseStatus” = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc, tab2.”applyNo”
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc, tab2.”applyNo”
)tab
<![CDATA[
where rownum
(#pageNo#-1) * #pageCount#
]]>
/////////////
(t.sales_channel = #tkChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #tkChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and t.referrals_code = #refereeCode#
TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and ar.REFERRALS_CODE = #refereeCode#
and ar.ap_loan_valid is null
]]>
ar.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
) tab2
where 1=1
(tab2.”phaseCode” = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and tab2.”phaseStatus” = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc
<![CDATA[
)tab
where rownum (to_number(#pageNo#)-1) * to_number(#pageCount#)
]]>
//////////////////
(t.sales_channel = #tkChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #tkChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and t.last_sales_man_code = #salesManCode#
TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
and ar.um = #salesManCode#
and ar.ap_loan_valid is null
]]>
ar.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
) tab2
where 1=1
(tab2.”phaseCode” = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and tab2.”phaseStatus” = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc
<![CDATA[
)tab
where rownum (to_number(#pageNo#)-1) * to_number(#pageCount#)
]]>
///////////////////
(t.sales_channel = #dsChannelList[].salesChannel# and decode(t.sub_channel_1,null,#defaultSubChannel#,t.sub_channel_1) = #dsChannelList[].subChannel#)
)
m.PRODUCT_LABEL = ’01’
apr.loan_code = #loanCode#
apr.main_loan_code = #mainLoanCode#
nvl(m.PRODUCT_LABEL, ’02’) != ’01’
and t.date_apply > TRUNC(sysdate+1) – #countDay#
t.last_sales_man_code = #salesManCode#
t.sub_bank_code IN
#subBankCodeList[]#
rm.creditline_tag = #creditLineTag#
) tab2
where 1=1
(tab2.”phaseCode” = #phaseList[].phaseCode# and tab2.”phaseStatus” = #phaseList[].phaseStatus#)
order by tab2.”applyDate” desc, tab2.”applyNo”
order by tab2.”applyDate” asc, tab2.”applyNo”
)tab
<![CDATA[
where rownum
(#pageNo#-1) * #pageCount#
]]>
大神!今天看了你的《最小作用量原理和物理之美》,醍醐灌顶、身心愉悦、功力大增!终身受益。感激不尽!mummmma~
哈哈那是我还没读本科的时候写的文章 如果对这个话题感兴趣的话 建议找本物理系的理论力学教材读一读~